考虑源荷不确定性的西北区域互联电网两阶段综合平衡模型

A Two-Stage Comprehensive Power Balance Method for Northwest Interconnected Power System Considering Source-Load Uncertainty

中文关键词:跨省电网互济  新能源不确定性  电力平衡  联络线功率调整

keywords:trans-provincial power sharing  renewable energy uncertainty  power balance  tie line power adjustment

中文摘要:新能源富余电力及灵活性资源跨省互济是促进新能源消纳、应对源荷不确定性、保障区域电力平衡的重要措施。该文以西北电网为例，基于西北五省网架结构及电源特性，提出一种考虑源荷不确定性的西北区域互联电网两阶段综合平衡模型。在日前，根据各省源荷日前预测数据及历史数据集，提出基于聚合机组等效处理的恶劣场景概率分布下的省内、省间日前供需平衡方法，在兼顾省内自平衡的同时实现省间有效互济；在日内，统筹考虑跨区各省源荷互补特性，基于区域日前电力平衡调度结果，通过灵活调整日内省间联络线路功率以应对源荷多重不确定性带来的平衡风险，可有效提升西北五省的新能源高效消纳及负荷可靠供电能力。

Abstract:The mutual sharing of surplus new energy electricity and flexible resources across provinces is an important measure to promote the consumption of new energy， address the uncertainty of power sources and loads， and ensure the balance of regional power. Taking the Northwest power grid as an example， based on the grid structure and power source characteristics of the five provinces in the Northwest， this paper proposes a two-stage comprehensive balance model for the interconnected power grid in the region considering the uncertainty of power sources and loads. For the day-ahead operation， based on the day-ahead forecast data and historical datasets of each province's power generation and load， a method for intra-provincial and inter-provincial day-ahead supply-demand balance under the probability distribution of severe scenarios based on equivalent processing of aggregated units is proposed. For the intra-day operation， taking into account the complementary characteristics of power generation and load across different provinces， and based on the results of regional day-ahead power balance scheduling， the balance risks brought by multiple uncertainties of power generation and load can be effectively addressed by flexibly adjusting the power of inter-provincial tie lines during the day. This method can effectively improve the renewable energy consumption rate and load reliability in northwest power system.