基于动态热额定概率模型的节能导线动态载流量计算方法

Calculation Method for Dynamic Current-Carrying Capacity of Energy-Saving Conductors Based on Probability Model of Dynamic Thermal Rating

中文关键词:节能导线  动态热额定  载流量  概率密度函数

keywords:energy saving conductor  DTR  current-carrying capacity  probability density function

中文摘要:针对传统输电线路载流量计算采用固定热极限值导致容量低估的问题，构建动态载流量评估模型。基于动态热额定（dynamic thermal rating，DTR）概率理论，建立考虑输电走廊温度、风速等气象参数时空分布特征的导线电阻动态计算框架，通过区间识别迭代算法解耦环境参数与导体热平衡方程，在满足导体机械强度约束条件下求解载流量最优解集。某220 kV线路工程验证表明，与我国现行标准相比，该线路的最大载流量有显著提升，有助于提高输电效率，降低生产成本和二氧化碳排放。该模型通过动态耦合气象参数与导体热力学特性，突破了传统设计规范中的保守取值限制，在保证导线机械安全前提下实现了输电容量提升与环境效益优化的双重目标，为电网弹性运行提供量化决策依据。

Abstract:To address the problem of underestimated transmission capacity caused by fixed thermal limit values in traditional current-carrying capacity calculations for overhead transmission lines，a dynamic current-carrying capacity evaluation model is proposed. Based on the probability theory of dynamic thermal rating （DTR），a dynamic calculation framework for conductor resistance is established，considering the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of meteorological parameters （e.g.，ambient temperature and wind speed） along the transmission corridor. An interval identification iterative algorithm is adopted to decouple environmental parameters from the conductor heat balance equation，and the optimal solution set of current-carrying capacity is derived under the constraint of conductor mechanical strength. Project-based verification on a 220 kV transmission line project shows that compared with China’s current standards，the maximum current-carrying capacity of the line is significantly improved，which helps enhance transmission efficiency，reduce production costs and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. By dynamically coupling meteorological parameters with conductor thermodynamic characteristics，the proposed model breaks through the conservative value constraints in traditional design specifications. It achieves the dual goals of transmission capacity enhancement and environmental benefit optimization while ensuring the mechanical safety of conductors，providing a quantitative decision-making foundation for the flexible operation of power systems.