面向台风灾害计及机组运行与潮流约束的运行场景评估

Operational Scenario Assessment of Power Systems under Typhoon Hazards Considering Unit Operation and Power Flow Constraints

中文关键词:台风灾害  运行场景评估  机组运行  潮流约束

keywords:typhoon disaster  operational scenario assessment  unit operation  power flow constraints

中文摘要:针对当前评估方法在台风灾害下电力系统运行场景差异性刻画不精准与系统响应策略描述不全面的双重不足，提出一种计及机组优化调节、机组运行约束和系统潮流约束的电力系统运行场景评估方法。首先，以最大负荷增量为评估指标，构建计及机组组合优化、系统潮流约束的台风灾害场景评估模型；其次，基于台风数据计算风电出力、负荷曲线及火电机组关停指标，并通过抽样生成待评估场景集；最后，通过外层二分搜索与内层优化可行性校验相结合的策略求解最大负荷增量，并基于改进的IEEE 118节点系统进行仿真分析。结果表明，所提方法具有较高的准确性和有效性。

Abstract:To address the shortcomings of existing assessment methods in characterizing the heterogeneity of power system operating scenarios and describing system response strategies under typhoon disaster，this paper proposes an operational scenario assessment method that explicitly accounts for generator-unit optimization and regulation，unit operational constraints，and transmission power flow constraints. First，the maximum load increment is adopted as the assessment metric，and a typhoon-disaster scenario assessment model incorporating unit commitment optimization and system power flow constraints is formulated. Second，wind power outputs，load profiles，and thermal generator-unit shutdown indicators are derived from typhoon data，based on which a set of candidate scenarios to be evaluated is generated through sampling. Finally，the maximum load increment is solved via a strategy integrating an outer-layer bisection search and an inner-layer optimization-based feasibility check. Case studies are conducted on a modified IEEE 118-bus test system，and the results demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method.