基于双重差分的分时电价改革对用电负荷的影响分析

Impact of Time-of-Use Electricity Pricing Reform on Power Load Based on Difference-in-Differences Model

中文关键词:分时电价  用电负荷  量化分析  双重差分

keywords:time-of-use electricity price  power load  quantitative analysis  difference-in-differences

中文摘要:针对新一轮分时电价改革和以往具有显著差异且相关研究难以有效识别分时电价对负荷的影响这一问题，提出适用于行业层面微观数据的双重差分模型，结合中部某省2022—2024年19个行业负荷数据，识别分时电价对用电负荷的总体影响和季节差异。结果表明，分时电价有效减少了高峰时段负荷5%左右，增加低谷和平段负荷6%左右；同时，分时电价的影响具有一定的季节差异，春秋季节的夜间和早间负荷增加幅度更大，夏季的负荷影响较小，午间低谷时段能有效促进新能源消纳，冬季高峰时段的负荷下降更大。此外，能源密集型行业受分时电价影响明显，如黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业行业，出现午间负荷上升或午后负荷下降的特征，批发零售行业午间负荷也有明显上升。研究结果验证了分时电价改革具有明显的削峰填谷作用，且不同季节和行业的负荷响应具有明显差异。

Abstract:Given the significant differences between the new round of time-of-use （TOU） electricity pricing reform and previous ones， and the difficulty of relevant studies in effectively identifying the impact of TOU pricing on power load， this study proposes a difference-in-differences （DID） model suitable for micro-data at the industry level. Combined with the power load data of 19 industries in a central province from 2022 to 2024， this study identifies the overall impact of TOU pricing on power load and its seasonal differences. The results show that TOU pricing effectively reduces the peak-period load by approximately 5% and increases the off-peak and shoulder-period loads by about 6%. Meanwhile， the impact of TOU pricing exhibits certain seasonal differences： the increase in night and morning loads is more significant in spring and autumn， the impact on load is relatively small in summer， TOU pricing can effectively promote renewable energy consumption during the midday valley period， and the reduction in peak load is greater in winter. In addition， energy-intensive industries are significantly affected； for example， the ferrous metallurgy industry shows the characteristics of rising midday load or declining afternoon load， and the wholesale and retail industry also has a significant increase in midday load. The research results verify that the TOU pricing reform has an obvious peak-shaving and valley-filling effect， and the load response varies significantly among different seasons and industries.