考虑责任系数动态排放因子的园区多能流碳排放测算方法研究

Carbon Emission Estimation Methods for Park Multi-Energy Flow Considering Dynamic Emission Factors with Responsibility Coefficient

中文关键词:多能流  主成分分析  责任系数  动态碳排放因子  碳排放测算

keywords:multi-energy flow  principal component analysis  responsibility coefficient  dynamic carbon emission factor  carbon emission estimation

中文摘要:为解决园区多能流系统中低碳运行机理不明，碳排放测算方法不清的问题，提出了一种考虑责任系数动态排放因子的园区多能流碳排放测算方法。首先，结合主成分分析方法和责任系数构建了适用于园区级的动态碳排放因子测算模型；其次，构建了园区综合能源系统能源供应模型，并提出综合能源系统多能流碳排放测算和“网-园-荷”碳排放分摊方法；最后，通过算例验证了所提方法的有效性。算例分析在一个新英格兰30节点系统、6节点供热网络和7节点天然气网络中展开。结果表明：相比于传统动态碳排放因子，责任系数动态碳排放因子变化曲线标准差提高了116.7%，变异系数提高了48.5%，平均一阶差分值提高了117.7%；负荷响应更为灵敏，数值波动更为明显，可激励指导企业动态调控生产。同时，所提测算方法相比于固定碳排放因子，碳排放量在4个季度中分别减少32.26%、29.33%、32.45%和34.48%，相比传统动态碳排放因子，碳排放量在前3季度分别增加10.84%、14.07%、12.31%，在第4季度减少11.14%。

Abstract:To address the unclear low-carbon operation mechanism and ambiguous carbon emission estimation in park-level multi-energy flow systems， this paper proposes a park multi-energy flow carbon emission estimation method considering dynamic emission factors with responsibility coefficient. Firstly， a park-oriented dynamic carbon emission factor calculation model suitable is constructed by combining principal component analysis with responsibility coefficients； secondly， an integrated energy system （IES） supply model for the park is established， and a multi-energy flow carbon emission estimation and "grid-park-load" allocation method for the IES system is proposed； finally， the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by case studies. The case analysis is carried out in a New England 30-bus system， a 6-bus heating network and a 7-bus natural gas network. The results show that compared with the traditional dynamic emission factor， the standard deviation， coefficient of variation and average first-order difference of the change curve of the dynamic emission factor with responsibility coefficient are increased by 116.7%， 48.5% and 117.7% respectively， with more sensitive load response and more obvious numerical fluctuation， which can encourage and guide enterprises to carry out dynamic production regulation. Meanwhile， compared with the fixed emission factor， the carbon emissions calculated by the method proposed in this paper are reduced by 32.26%， 29.33%， 32.45% and 34.48% in the four quarters respectively； compared with the traditional dynamic emission factor， the carbon emissions are increased by 10.84%， 14.07% and 12.31% in the first three quarters， and decreased by 11.14% in the fourth quarter.